in the past year, analysts have claimed that online advertising will not be affected by the recession, people should be used in this kind of advertising spending more publicity, online advertising is the future mainstream advertising.

but Blodget thinks it’s time for us to wake up and face reality. He believes that online advertising spending will decline in 2009, and may even be a sharp decline, and in 2010 will continue to decline. Hundreds of ad business startups will be down mode. YAHOO, CNET, AOL and other large display advertising companies will also be affected. Online advertising companies or will usher in the second dotcom crisis.

Gawker Media, the most profitable business blog site, recently announced layoffs, which is why. Gawker Media founder Nick Denton is not a fool, and his worries about the future has never been as strong as it is now. That’s why YAHOO has repeatedly laid off workers, which is why AOL, MSN and other second tier companies will continue to depreciate.

Blodge said the online display advertising spending in the second quarter has begun to show signs of decline, according to the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) data show that non search ads (including display ads, classified ads) spending grew 14% in the first quarter, the second quarter is only 5%. In September, the personal consumer market began to panic, the fourth quarter of non search advertising spending growth is almost certainly a negative.

so, online display advertising growth has deteriorated to what extent? Blodge cited PWC’s data, in the past three years, the first quarter display advertising spending has been compared to the previous year, the fourth quarter is higher, while the second quarter spending is higher than the first quarter. But this year, these two indicators have declined (see the bottom right). And the figure shows the total revenue of online advertising, including the still growing search advertising revenue.

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now look at the income in the second quarter of the year. Compared with the second quarter of 2000, the second quarter of 2002 showed a decline in advertising revenue of $25%. The future may not be so bad, but it may not be good enough, and the downturn will last for two years.

 

Figure 2, from 2008 to the second quarter of the U.S. online advertising revenue trend

Blodge estimates that in the next few years, online display advertising market will at least the next year fell 10%, 2010 will be slightly more, but did not estimate plunged 25% as in 2002, because this will not happen half network advertisers bankruptcy >

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